After largely sparing Puerto Rico on Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian may hit the continental U.S. as a dangerous Category 4 storm. As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicted the system would continue to intensify as it approached land, possibly reaching 130 mph winds before making landfall on the coast of Florida.
Meteorologists expect the hurricane to arrive late on Sunday or early Monday morning, and it could be the strongest storm to hit Florida's east coast since Andrew in 1992. NASA's Kennedy Space Center is working to move and secure hundreds of millions of dollars in equipment in preparation for the event.
As Jeff Berardelli reported for CBS on Thursday, it was an unexpected shift to the east that gave Dorian the chance to grow into a historic hurricane. The storm is rather lopsided, which dragged the worst bit of it away from Puerto Rico as it passed over. Less time spent over land kept Dorian strong—hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean water, so they weaken as they cross dry terrain—and conditions are now perfect for the system to continue growing stronger as it barrels toward its next landfall.
While the exact location is impossible to pinpoint this many days out (that's why forecast tracks widen out into those rounded curves, known as cones of uncertainty), residents of Florida are being urged to prepare for dangerous winds and flooding, and to do so as soon as possible. Governor Ron DeSantis has already issued a state of emergency for all counties in the storm's projected path.
"People have got to be ready before Sunday," Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center, told CNN. Winds could reach tropical-storm speeds on land as early as Saturday. The NHC has also warned that Dorian may move slowly once it hits land, allowing it to dump dangerous quantities of rain. With Labor Day weekend bound to have many Americans eager to enjoy some outdoor summer fun, it's especially crucial that anyone sitting in the storm's path—whether or not they live on the coast—take precautions.
Category 4 hurricanes are serious: When wind gusts reach 130 mph, they can rip most of the roof off of a house and down trees and power lines, limiting the access of emergency services and potentially cutting off power for days or weeks. But it's important to remember that hurricane categories only factor in windspeed. That's why there's nothing higher than a Category 5; once winds are faster than 157 mph, they're going to cause roughly the same amount of horrific damage until they break the laws of nature. But as recent hurricane seasons have so brutally demonstrated, wind is just one factor in a hurricane's ability to cause death and destruction. The most dangerous hurricanes in recent history have carried huge storm surges, where the ocean rises rapidly due to pressure changes around it and causes flooding. Wind speed can contribute to the height of a storm surge, but so can the storm's size, as well as where it makes landfall and how slowly it moves over land.
Why does this matter? Because it's always possible that Dorian won't actually reach Category 4 wind speeds, or that it will hit that benchmark before quickly weakening back down to a lower-rated storm. Do not let a lower category rating than anticipated lull you into carelessness. Minor hurricanes can be deadly, too.
But there's still time to properly prep. Check out our guide to hurricane preparedness to make sure you have everything you need. And if you're on an Orlando vacation without a way to get out of harm's way before the end of the weekend, read our guide to handling a natural disaster as a tourist. Check local forecasts and the National Hurricane Center website for updates, and use our handy hurricane glossary to help navigate confusing forecasting jargon.
from Popular Science | RSS https://www.popsci.com/hurricane-dorian-forecast-update/
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